Both in the event the CBOE future expired now, if the CME bitcoin future is on its way settlement, there was clearly a substantial decrease in the bitcoin price. Both futures has quite a low volume and i also would guess that they’re dominated by one single liquidity provider\/market maker. This market maker is probably short the future and maybe long the area. At expiry, they’ll profit when the price is low and also have a border after settlement once the cost rebounds. Sadly both CME and CBOE has chosen an extremely bad settlement processes which can be simple to manipulate. For CBOE it does not take auction price for Gemini – a young with a small volume most of the time.
CME’s model is better, however not very good, VWAP on the four major exchanges is a good idea, however, if that VWAP is calculated on just one minute of trading it’s meaningless. With few large participants, the degree on this kind of brief period is extremely limited. Even if many large participants could have interests in different of the settlement processes they’d more than likely have the identical position and advantages of exactly the same side in the market manipulation. The VWAP will need to have been calculated over hrs instead). In conclusion is that we likely will discover a great deal of strange market activity around each future expiration and expect a rebound after 3 pm Central time today!.
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