We’re closely watching the Crypto Currency forex market if you’re able to call it that, with the fake data, fraud, and related problems. One thing stands apart – it isn’t really so diverse from FX, commodities, futures, or stocks. Market dynamics are market dynamics. And as most readers of the fine site will know – virtually all traders lose. There’s been analysis done with this, you know how this ends. A few early investors make a bundle and thousands or millions even stay holding the bag. From one perspective, a bubble is a lot like a ponzi scheme. In MLM, there are many who break the bank – the founders.
If you aren’t the founder – how do you know which Crypto will probably be the next Bitcoin? You seriously don’t. You have no idea. You can look to Korea and do each of the due diligence you want, the reality is that there is no-one to see the future and even a top analyst can be wrong occasionally.
Quant traders have the identical doctrine all of them share – they’re smart enough to understand how stupid these are. They know their own flaws and so they endure a greater power- which is Artificial Intelligence.
Computing power has become so massive that it must be likely that everyone can from other home office create a sensible automated program that does well. Obviously, like with the laws of market dynamics, it’s also possible to develop a robot which can be worth exactly zero – a big pile of crap. When a quant bakes an algorithm it’s either priceless or worthless. If it truely does work, he has effectively created a income generating machine. If it doesn’t work, there isn’t a value to anyone not really academics.
How do we know what method works, building an operating bot or get one? There are obvious conflicts of great interest in people who sell bots. The internet has become covered with good marketeers, while profitable quants mostly maintain their ways of themselves. Selling a product or service, and trading a robot, are really 2 different skills.
Crypto to date has shown similar to most markets: impossible to trade.
Although are kicking themselves for not buying and holding, I will tell you being a trader and I speak for many inside the room there’s no way I’d also have the patience to sit on a hugely profitable position for 3 years even though the price goes parabolic.
This is why quants develop and trade algorithms – picking entries and exits may be brain-destroying. There are dangers and risks with robots too obviously, but you are of an different nature.
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